A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
